Stock Market Study Comprehesive US stock analysis and high probability investing

May 6, 2013

Coverage Summary

Filed under: Analyst Opinion — Tags: — admin @ 12:00 am

Seller Buyer Buyout formula Target Current Max % Closing Annualized % Note
CVH AET $27.3 0.3885 AET 50.33 50.33 0.01 06/30/2013 0.05
FMCN Nanchun Jiang,Carlyle Group, CITIC Capital Partners, CDH Investments and China Everbright Ltd. $27.5 less adr cancellation fee 0.05 27.45 27.24 0.77 06/31/2013 5.02 Analysis
AM Go private by CEO $17.50 Non-binding 17.50 18.35 -4.63 12/31/2013 -7.07 Analysis
SVN Go private by CEO $13.8 minus 5c ADS fee Non-binding 13.75 13.60 1.10 12/31/2013 1.68
HCBK MTB 0.08403 MTB 60% or cash 40% 8.50 8.33 2.02 04/30/2013 2.02 Closing in the 2nd quarter
CYMI ASML $20.00 and 1.1502 ASML 108.32 107.99 0.31 06/30/2013 2.05
ALN Go private by Chen Si (CEO) $1.6 Non-binding 1.60 1.09 46.79 12/31/2013 71.46
  • Chen Si on 10/09/2012, offered to take the company private for $1.60 per share.
  • This stock is stable between the range of 1.30 and 1.39 in last 1.5 months. The entry will be difficult without moving the price up 2~3 cents. However, when the liquidity really appears, any hesitation would be waste of opportunities. After setting up a position in this stock, the daily 3% volatility must be tolerated to reap the gain. Current lower band would be 1.31, 1.30. The maximum drop in last 3 month is 32%
  • Next event is at 03/30/2013 that was deduced from last year's annual report date of 03/30/2012. There is no closing date as the offer is non-binding.
  • Analysis
HOGS Go private by CEO Xianfu Zhu $13.5 13.50 12.96 4.17 06/30/2013 27.65 Analysis
NINE Go private by directors $1.8~$2.0 Non-binding minus 5c ADS fee 1.85 1.46 26.71 12/31/2013 40.79
  • Mr. Shuang Wang, Ms. Min Dong, Mr. Xiaoguang Ren, Mr. Kin Fai Ng, Mr. Bolin Wu, Mr. Zhonghai Xu, Mr. Tommy Siu Lun Fork offered to take the company private for at a price per share in the range of US$1.80 to US$2.00 on 10/12/2012. There is a ADS cancellation fee 5c per share. So the investor will get $1.75~$1.95. The company can not make the PR right.
  • Current bid vs ask situation are like 1.63x300 vs 1.69x400. There is no way to setup a big position here.
  • The current trend of this stock is bearish. Current lower band is at 1.62. The maximum dropping in last 3 months is 13%.
  • There is no closing date as the offer is non-binding. The 04/26/2013 earning date was deduced from last years 20-F sec filing date.
SSRX Go private by CEO $16.70 less 5 cents ads fee 16.65 16.49 0.97 06/30/2013 6.44 Analysis
KYAK PCLN $40 cash(33%) or PCLN stock prorata 0.05728~0.07001 PCLN (698.32~571.35) 40.00 40.66 -1.62 05/01/2013 -1.62
CXS NLY $13.05206 13.05 13.04 0.09 05/23/2013 1.99
OUTD The Sportsman Channel and InterMedia Outdoors (55.4%) 14M share will be paid for $8.00 in total $115M, (44.6%) 11M will be paid by stock. 25,943,066 vs 8.75 8.75 10.00 -12.50 06/30/2013 -82.95 Analysis
PXP FCX 0.6531 FCX and $25.00 45.55 45.95 -0.86 06/30/2013 -5.73
MMR FCX $14.75 and 1.15 royalty trust, 5% overriding royalty interest in future production from MMR existing ultra-deep exploration properties. 14.75 16.62 -11.25 06/30/2013 -74.67 The negative potential return should be ignored because of the value of CVR. I believe this stock is fairly valued at this moment.
IN HON $10 10.00 9.79 2.15 06/30/2013 14.24
KCG GetCo $3.75 2/3 cash-1/3 stock offer

3.59 3.54 1.31 06/30/2013 8.70
CLWR S $3.30 3.30 3.39 -2.65 06/30/2013 -17.62
ARB NLSN $48 48.00 46.72 2.74 05/21/2013 66.67
NYX ICE $33.12, or .2581 ICE, or $11.27 plus .1703 ICE 40.56 40.39 0.42 12/31/2013 0.64
ROMA ISBC 0.8653 ISBC 17.12 17.02 0.61 06/31/2013 3.99
FCFC Varde Partners 10 10.00 9.88 1.21 06/31/2013 7.92
ASCA PNK 26.5 26.50 26.38 0.45 09/31/2013 1.12
DUF Carlyle, Stone Point Capital, Pictet & Cie, and Edmond de Rothschild 15.55 15.55 15.54 0.06 06/31/2013 0.42
ES Energy Capital Partners II, LLC 3.75 3.75 4.13 -9.20 06/30/2013 -61.06 The Company expects to close the merger in the second or third quarter of 2013
SOMH LBAI 12 cash or 1.1962 SOMH 90% stock and 10% cash 11.50 11.49 0.11 12/31/2013 0.17
WMS SGMS 26 26.00 25.29 2.81 12/31/2013 4.29 5 day chart is rising, 1 month chart had a jump.
DELL Michael Dell and Silver Lake 13.65 13.65 13.32 2.48 11/05/2013 4.94 45 days shopping ends 03/15/2013
FMFC RNST 0.6425 RNST 14.64 14.36 1.97 09/30/2013 4.89 Using 28% income growth rate, RNST should be valued at $44 per share, or 870M. FMFC should be $17 per share.

  • Balance income E/P
  • 305 25
  • 339 34 1.34
  • 382 43 1.72
  • 438 56 2.21
  • 509 71 2.83
  • 601 92 3.64
  • 718 118 4.67
  • 869 151 5.99

Analysis

HNZ BRK-A 3G Capital 72.5 72.50 72.40 0.14 09/30/2013 0.34 The Transaction, which is currently expected to close by the end of the second quarter or early in the third quarter of 2013
ART Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 2.75 2.75 2.74 0.36 06/30/2013 2.42 Close by the end of 2q or early in 3q 2013
OMX ODP 2.69 ODP 10.52 11.67 -9.87 12/31/2013 -15.08 The omx is overvalued because of the buyout contract. Either OMX drops, or ODP increases in price. There is no point to bet on OMX to rise.
NTSP TSS 16 16.00 15.96 0.25 06/30/2013 1.66
FFCH SCBT 0.4237 SCBT 20.70 20.49 1.01 09/30/2013 2.52
BRY LNCO 1.25 LNCO 48.69 46.42 4.88 06/30/2013 32.42 The company structure is very complex. If there is any conflict of interests, 6% potential gain does not cover all the risk involved.
PVFC FNB 0.3405 FNB 3.96 3.82 3.67 09/30/2013 9.10 FNB is overvalued. The value should be $8 if grows income at 18%.
ALC TPG, the global private investment firm 12.00 12.00 11.93 0.59 12/31/2013 0.90
SDBK PPBI 13.41 or 1.114 PPBI 13.50 13.49 0.08 06/30/2013 0.51 The max loss is 7.80%, the maxim gain is 12%. The maximum price of SDBK is 14.75, the minimum price of SDBK will be 12.06. The transaction is expected to close late in the second quarter of 2013 or in the third quarter of 2013
NFSB SIFI $17.55 or 1.5129 SIFI 17.44 17.11 1.95 09/30/2013 4.85 The transaction is expected to close late in the second quarter of 2013 or in the third quarter of 2013
HOTT Sycamore Partners $14 14.00 13.93 0.50 12/31/2013 0.77 Special meeting date is not set yet
AACC ECPG $6.5 cash or 0.2162 ECPG (25%) 6.48 6.51 -0.46 06/30/2013 -3.08
GDI Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (together with its affiliates, "KKR") $76 76.00 75.10 1.20 09/30/2013 2.98
SCR Buyout by Chairman $9.56 non-binding 9.56 9.06 5.52 03/15/2014 6.44
CIS Buyout by CEO $1.85 ADS non-binding 1.80 1.71 5.26 03/15/2014 6.14
PMTI CYNO $6.825 and $6.825 in Cynosure common stock 12.72 13.62 -6.58 09/30/2013 -16.33
EDAC GB Aero Engine LLC, an affiliate of Greenbriar Equity Group LLC $17.75 17.75 17.73 0.11 06/30/2013 0.75



This marks a downtrend in the price chart.
This marks a uptrend in the price chart.
This marks a stock with interesting story behind.

In order to maintain a healthy portfolio,

  1. We should learn from the mistakes rather than give up on set back.
  2. We should divide the portfolio to 5-7 positions so we can study those positions as well as keep the risk under control.
  3. Every stock has a pricing range. If the price of the stock breaks the range to go down, we need to be prepared to cut, instead of add position in the stock be careful about that, no matter we are in a winning or losing position.
  4. We should buy buyout-related stocks. The most suitable stock should have a definitive agreement, cash instead of stock proceeds, good financing, good regulatory approval prospects. However we can relax some of this criteria a bit to pursue some return.
  5. We should study how the prorate formula before it may apply on our positions.
  6. We should not use the unsettled proceeds to buy stock, because it impose unduly risk on the operation.

This post was updated on 05/06/2013 12:00:26.790.

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