|Seller||Buyer||Buyout formula||Target||Current||Max %||Closing||Annualized %||Note|
|CVH||AET||$27.3 0.3885 AET||50.33||50.33||0.01||06/30/2013||0.05|
|FMCN||Nanchun Jiang,Carlyle Group, CITIC Capital Partners, CDH Investments and China Everbright Ltd.||$27.5 less adr cancellation fee 0.05||27.45||27.24||0.77||06/31/2013||5.02||Analysis|
|AM||Go private by CEO||$17.50 Non-binding||17.50||18.35||-4.63||12/31/2013||-7.07||Analysis|
|SVN||Go private by CEO||$13.8 minus 5c ADS fee Non-binding||13.75||13.60||1.10||12/31/2013||1.68|
|HCBK||MTB||0.08403 MTB 60% or cash 40%||8.50||8.33||2.02||04/30/2013||2.02||Closing in the 2nd quarter|
|CYMI||ASML||$20.00 and 1.1502 ASML||108.32||107.99||0.31||06/30/2013||2.05|
|ALN||Go private by Chen Si (CEO)||$1.6 Non-binding||1.60||1.09||46.79||12/31/2013||71.46||
|HOGS||Go private by CEO Xianfu Zhu||$13.5||13.50||12.96||4.17||06/30/2013||27.65||Analysis|
|NINE||Go private by directors||$1.8~$2.0 Non-binding minus 5c ADS fee||1.85||1.46||26.71||12/31/2013||40.79||
|SSRX||Go private by CEO||$16.70 less 5 cents ads fee||16.65||16.49||0.97||06/30/2013||6.44||Analysis|
|KYAK||PCLN||$40 cash(33%) or PCLN stock prorata 0.05728~0.07001 PCLN (698.32~571.35)||40.00||40.66||-1.62||05/01/2013||-1.62|
|OUTD||The Sportsman Channel and InterMedia Outdoors||(55.4%) 14M share will be paid for $8.00 in total $115M, (44.6%) 11M will be paid by stock. 25,943,066 vs 8.75||8.75||10.00||-12.50||06/30/2013||-82.95||Analysis|
|PXP||FCX||0.6531 FCX and $25.00||45.55||45.95||-0.86||06/30/2013||-5.73|
|MMR||FCX||$14.75 and 1.15 royalty trust, 5% overriding royalty interest in future production from MMR existing ultra-deep exploration properties.||14.75||16.62||-11.25||06/30/2013||-74.67||The negative potential return should be ignored because of the value of CVR. I believe this stock is fairly valued at this moment.|
|KCG||GetCo||$3.75 2/3 cash-1/3 stock offer
|NYX||ICE||$33.12, or .2581 ICE, or $11.27 plus .1703 ICE||40.56||40.39||0.42||12/31/2013||0.64|
|DUF||Carlyle, Stone Point Capital, Pictet & Cie, and Edmond de Rothschild||15.55||15.55||15.54||0.06||06/31/2013||0.42|
|ES||Energy Capital Partners II, LLC||3.75||3.75||4.13||-9.20||06/30/2013||-61.06||The Company expects to close the merger in the second or third quarter of 2013|
|SOMH||LBAI||12 cash or 1.1962 SOMH 90% stock and 10% cash||11.50||11.49||0.11||12/31/2013||0.17|
|WMS||SGMS||26||26.00||25.29||2.81||12/31/2013||4.29||5 day chart is rising, 1 month chart had a jump.|
|DELL||Michael Dell and Silver Lake||13.65||13.65||13.32||2.48||11/05/2013||4.94||45 days shopping ends 03/15/2013|
|FMFC||RNST||0.6425 RNST||14.64||14.36||1.97||09/30/2013||4.89||Using 28% income growth rate, RNST should be valued at $44 per share, or 870M. FMFC should be $17 per share.
|HNZ||BRK-A 3G Capital||72.5||72.50||72.40||0.14||09/30/2013||0.34||The Transaction, which is currently expected to close by the end of the second quarter or early in the third quarter of 2013|
|ART||Aberdeen Asset Management PLC||2.75||2.75||2.74||0.36||06/30/2013||2.42||Close by the end of 2q or early in 3q 2013|
|OMX||ODP||2.69 ODP||10.52||11.67||-9.87||12/31/2013||-15.08||The omx is overvalued because of the buyout contract. Either OMX drops, or ODP increases in price. There is no point to bet on OMX to rise.|
|BRY||LNCO||1.25 LNCO||48.69||46.42||4.88||06/30/2013||32.42||The company structure is very complex. If there is any conflict of interests, 6% potential gain does not cover all the risk involved.|
|PVFC||FNB||0.3405 FNB||3.96||3.82||3.67||09/30/2013||9.10||FNB is overvalued. The value should be $8 if grows income at 18%.|
|ALC||TPG, the global private investment firm||12.00||12.00||11.93||0.59||12/31/2013||0.90|
|SDBK||PPBI||13.41 or 1.114 PPBI||13.50||13.49||0.08||06/30/2013||0.51||The max loss is 7.80%, the maxim gain is 12%. The maximum price of SDBK is 14.75, the minimum price of SDBK will be 12.06. The transaction is expected to close late in the second quarter of 2013 or in the third quarter of 2013|
|NFSB||SIFI||$17.55 or 1.5129 SIFI||17.44||17.11||1.95||09/30/2013||4.85||The transaction is expected to close late in the second quarter of 2013 or in the third quarter of 2013|
|HOTT||Sycamore Partners||$14||14.00||13.93||0.50||12/31/2013||0.77||Special meeting date is not set yet|
|AACC||ECPG||$6.5 cash or 0.2162 ECPG (25%)||6.48||6.51||-0.46||06/30/2013||-3.08|
|GDI||Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (together with its affiliates, "KKR")||$76||76.00||75.10||1.20||09/30/2013||2.98|
|SCR||Buyout by Chairman||$9.56 non-binding||9.56||9.06||5.52||03/15/2014||6.44|
|CIS||Buyout by CEO||$1.85 ADS non-binding||1.80||1.71||5.26||03/15/2014||6.14|
|PMTI||CYNO||$6.825 and $6.825 in Cynosure common stock||12.72||13.62||-6.58||09/30/2013||-16.33|
|EDAC||GB Aero Engine LLC, an affiliate of Greenbriar Equity Group LLC||$17.75||17.75||17.73||0.11||06/30/2013||0.75|
This marks a downtrend in the price chart.
This marks a uptrend in the price chart.
This marks a stock with interesting story behind.
In order to maintain a healthy portfolio,
- We should learn from the mistakes rather than give up on set back.
- We should divide the portfolio to 5-7 positions so we can study those positions as well as keep the risk under control.
- Every stock has a pricing range. If the price of the stock breaks the range to go down, we need to be prepared to cut, instead of add position in the stock be careful about that, no matter we are in a winning or losing position.
- We should buy buyout-related stocks. The most suitable stock should have a definitive agreement, cash instead of stock proceeds, good financing, good regulatory approval prospects. However we can relax some of this criteria a bit to pursue some return.
- We should study how the prorate formula before it may apply on our positions.
- We should not use the unsettled proceeds to buy stock, because it impose unduly risk on the operation.
This post was updated on 05/06/2013 12:00:26.790.